CMS Projects 2027 Medicare Advantage Premiums Down 16.5 Percent, Check Yours

What did CMS actually say about 2027 premiums?

CMS released its 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D projections in late September 2026, roughly two weeks before Annual Enrollment opened. The weighted average monthly premium across all Medicare Advantage plans, including plans with drug coverage and Special Needs Plans, is projected to decrease from $14.37 in 2026 to $12.00 in 2027, a decline of 16.5 percent. For Medicare Advantage plans that include prescription drug coverage, the average monthly Part D premium after rebates is projected to fall from $11.32 in 2026 to $7 in 2027, a decrease of $4.32 or 38 percent.

Stand-alone drug coverage moves the other direction. CMS projects the total average monthly premium for stand-alone Part D plans will rise less than $1, from $35.09 in 2026 to $36 in 2027. If you are on Original Medicare with a separate drug plan, our write-up on why your 2027 Part D premium is going up explains the mechanics behind that number, and the Part D hub covers the basics.

CMS also reported broad availability. More than 99 percent of Medicare beneficiaries will have access to at least one Medicare Advantage plan, and 97 percent will have access to 10 or more options. CMS says 88 percent of non-low-income beneficiaries will have access to a basic Part D plan at $10.30 or less, and 93 percent will have access to an enhanced Part D plan at less than $6.

Why can the national average fall while your premium rises?

An enrollment-weighted national average is arithmetic across thousands of plans and more than 3,000 counties. A few very large, very low-premium plans pull the average down. That tells you almost nothing about the specific contract and plan ID printed on your card.

CMS said so itself in the same release. Approximately eight in ten Medicare Advantage beneficiaries will be able to remain in their current plan with the same or a lower premium in 2027. Read that in reverse: roughly two in ten will not. Someone in that group reading only the headline would plan their 2027 budget around a decrease that does not reach them.

State-level data in the CMS fact sheets shows the same split. In Florida, where 5,334,437 people are enrolled in Medicare, the average monthly Medicare Advantage premium changed from $1.83 in 2026 to $2.13 in 2027, and 560 Medicare Advantage plans are available in 2027 compared with 611 in 2026. All Florida beneficiaries still have access to a Medicare Advantage plan. That is a statewide average rising and a plan count falling, inside a year CMS described as a national decrease.

Other states ran the opposite way. In Alabama, with 1,142,885 people enrolled in Medicare, the average monthly Medicare Advantage premium changed from $11.25 in 2026 to $7.76 in 2027, and 113 plans are available in 2027 compared with 98 in 2026. Neither figure describes an individual plan in an individual county.

How do the 2027 averages compare with 2026?

Sources for the table are the CMS 2027 press release and the CMS 2027 state-by-state fact sheets. Every figure is an average or a count, not a quote for any person.

What else changed for 2027?

Two structural items sit underneath the premium numbers. First, the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration, a temporary subsidy for stand-alone drug plans, is being discontinued after 2026, which is one reason stand-alone and Medicare Advantage drug premiums moved in different directions this year.

Second, the Part D benefit itself is re-indexed for 2027. The annual out-of-pocket cap rises to $2,400 and the maximum standard deductible rises to $700. We walk through what counts toward that cap in our post on the $2,400 Part D cap in 2027, including why two people on the same plan hit it in different months.

On the Medicare Advantage side, CMS finalized a projected 2.48 percent increase, or over $13 billion, in payments to Medicare Advantage plans for 2027. CMS expects supplemental benefits such as hearing, dental and vision coverage to remain stable. Stable in aggregate still allows your specific plan to trim an allowance or change a vendor.

How do you confirm your real 2027 costs before December 7?

The tool that answers this is Medicare Plan Finder on medicare.gov. It is the CMS-run portal that lets beneficiaries compare Medicare Advantage and Part D plans, including premiums, costs, benefits and other coverage information. It is fed by the same CMS plan files that produced the national averages, only at plan and county level.

What matters as much as the premium?

Four items move more dollars than the premium for most people: the drug formulary and tier placement, the provider and hospital network, prior authorization rules, and the in-network out-of-pocket maximum. A plan that drops $5 a month while moving one of your drugs to a higher tier has not helped you.

Formulary placement is the one people miss. The same drug can sit on tier 3 in one plan and tier 4 in another, with very different coinsurance. Our breakdown of the four factors that decide your Part D plan for 2027 covers how to compare that properly.

What if your plan is not offered in 2027?

Non-renewals are part of this year’s picture, and Florida’s drop from 611 plans to 560 is one visible example. If your plan is ending, you get a notice and a special enrollment period, and the timing rules differ from the standard Annual Enrollment window. We cover the sequence in our post on carriers dropping Medicare Advantage plans for 2027.

Returning to Original Medicare also raises Medigap questions, and Medigap underwriting and guaranteed-issue rights vary by state. Start at the Medicare hub if you want the full set of windows, or bring the question to us. We work by phone and video in 40-plus states, not California, and we will run your county’s 2027 options with you rather than hand you a national average.